History > 2007 > USA > Demographics (I)

February 26, 2007

Ozier Muhammad/The New York Times

Making the Return Trip: Elderly Head Back North        NYT        27.2.2007

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/26/us/26seniors.html

Fastest-Growing States

Show Slower Expansion

December 27, 2007
The New York Times
By SAM ROBERTS

The bursting housing bubble squelched expansion in some of the nation’s fastest-growing states in the year that ended July 1, according to an analysis of census figures released Wednesday.

Nevada regained the title of fastest growing, from Arizona, but both states expanded more slowly than they did the year before. Nevada’s annual growth, like Florida’s, was its lowest since the decade began.

Wyoming bumped Florida from the list of the top 10 fastest-growing states. Only 35,000 Americans moved to Florida from elsewhere in the United States, compared with nearly five times as many the year before.

Michigan and Rhode Island registered their second consecutive annual losses in population. But Louisiana — which declined by more than 250,000 in the year that ended July 1, 2006, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina — recorded a gain of nearly 50,000 in the latest year.

The statewide population shifts hint at further realignment in Congressional districts after the 2010 census.

If nearly decade-long trends endure, Texas will gain as many as four Congressional seats and Florida’s delegation will grow by two, while New York and Ohio will lose two seats each, said Andrew A. Beveridge of Queens College of the City University of New York.

“Seventy percent of the decade has passed,” Dr. Beveridge said, “and there would have to be massive reversal of population trends for this not to happen.”

California’s 53-seat delegation will remain the largest. But for the first time in its history, it may not grow after Congressional reapportionment.

“That’s right in line with what we’ve seen for the entire decade,” Tim Storey, redistricting analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, said of Dr. Beveridge’s reapportionment analysis. “There’s going to be a shift of more seats to the Sun Belt and to the West.”

Still, that shift appears to have been tamped down by the subprime mortgage crisis. Nevada, Florida and California have posted among the highest foreclosure rates in the country.

The outflow of residents from high-cost states like California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts to more affordable states slowed last year.

“The higher cost of housing in southern Nevada has created a disincentive to relocate there,” said Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis, an economic consulting firm in Las Vegas, “although more than 33 percent of the people who relocate to southern Nevada come from California, where housing prices are even higher.”

Nevada’s state demographer, Jeff Hardcastle, said the decline in growth there might reflect the fact that no major new hotel-casinos had opened in Las Vegas.

“The population growth in Nevada is entirely driven by job growth,” Mr. Hardcastle said. “When you open up one of those hotels, it represents roughly 1.5 new jobs per room directly and one job indirectly.”

The slower housing construction market may have lowered numbers a bit, Mr. Hardcastle added, but that weakness may have been offset by jobs created by casino-hotel construction projects currently under way.

Nevada’s growth rate, 2.9 percent, was the greatest of any state — a record it has held for almost all of the past two decades. Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Texas and Utah also each grew 2 percent or more.

More Californians — 263,000 — left their state than did residents of any other state. Texas attracted the most newcomers — 141,000 — from elsewhere in the United States. Texas also drew 109,000 new foreign residents, third behind California and New York.

Texas grew by nearly 500,000 people. Nevada gained about 73,000.

Steve Friess contributed reporting.

    Fastest-Growing States Show Slower Expansion, NYT, 27.12.2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/27/us/27census.html

U.S. Deaths Rise by 50, 000 in 2005

September 12, 2007
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:33 p.m. ET
The New York Times

ATLANTA (AP) -- The number of deaths in the United States rose in 2005 after a sharp decline the year earlier, a disappointing reversal that suggests the 2004 numbers were a fluke. Cancer deaths were also up.

U.S. health officials said they believe the drop in deaths seen earlier may have been due to 2004's unusually mild flu season. Deaths from flu and lower respiratory disease jumped in 2005.

The new mortality data was released Wednesday in a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. It was a preliminary report, based on about 99 percent of the death records reported in all 50 states and the District of Columbia for 2005.

Last year, statistics from 2004 showed U.S. deaths fell to 2,397,615. It was a decline of about 50,000 from 2003, and was the largest drop in deaths in nearly 70 years. Some experts saw it as a sign of the triumph of modern medicine.

But the preliminary 2005 death count was up more than 50,000 -- about 2,447,900 -- almost back to the 2003 level.

''The best way to look at this is in five-year groupings, because every once in a while you are going to have an aberration,'' said Ken Thorpe, an Emory University health policy professor.

U.S. deaths numbered about 2,416,000 in 2001, 2,443,000 in 2002 and 2,448,000 in 2003, according to government data.

An unusually mild flu season in 2004 cut the flu death rate -- the number of deaths per 100,000 people -- by 7 percent. And it likely had a ripple effect by not worsening the condition of frail patients who ultimately died of something else, government health scientists said.

The 2005 flu season was closer to normal, and deaths from the virus rose by more than 3,000 from 2004. Deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases increased by nearly 9,000.

Heart disease and stroke -- the No. 1 and No. 3 killers -- killed fewer people in 2005 than 2004. But the No. 2 cause of death, cancer, rose to about 559,000 from 554,000, according to the report.

The success against heart disease is at least partly due to better treatments, which overcame the impact of an aging, growing population, Thorpe said.

But with cancer deaths, there was no such offset in 2005. ''That's unfortunate news,'' he said.

''You continue to hope with earlier detection diagnosis and treatment, we will pick these things up faster'' and prevent deaths. But because a growing number of Americans lack health insurance, many may not be getting those services, Thorpe said.

U.S. life expectancy inched up to 77.9 from the previous record, 77.8, recorded for 2004. The increase was more dramatic in contrast with 1995, when life expectancy was 75.8, and 1955, when it was 69.6.

A final report will be released later, and the numbers may change a little. Last year, when releasing its preliminary death data for 2004, the government reported a 77.9 life expectancy. That figure later dropped to 77.8 in the final report.

''If death rates from certain leading causes of death continue to decline, we should continue to see improvements in life expectancy,'' said study co-author Hsiang-Ching Kung, in a prepared statement.

Researchers also noted continued differences by race and sex. Life expectancy for whites in 2005 was 78.3, the same as in 2004. Black life expectancy rose from 73.1 in 2004 to 73.2 in 2005, but it was still nearly five years lower than the white figure.

Life expectancy for women continues to be five years longer than for men, the report also found. The infant mortality rate remained roughly the same as the previous year, about 6.9 per 1,000 live births.

Also, there were 5 percent increases in the rates for Alzheimer's disease, the No. 7 leading cause of death, and for Parkinson's disease, which was No. 14.

The United States continues to lag at least 40 other nations. Andorra, a tiny country in the Pyrenees mountains between France and Spain, has the longest life expectancy, at 83.5 years, according to a U.S. Census Bureau analysis of 2004 international data. It was followed by Japan, Macau (which is part of China), San Marino and Singapore.

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On The Net:

National Center for Health Statistics: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs 

    U.S. Deaths Rise by 50, 000 in 2005, NYT, 12.9.2007, http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Life-Expectancy.html

U.S. minority population tops 100 mln:

census

Thu May 17, 2007
6:17AM EDT
Reuters
By Matthew Bigg

ATLANTA (Reuters) - The number of people in the United States from ethnic or racial minorities has risen to more than 100 million, or around one third of the population, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report on Thursday.

The minorities figure stood at 100.7 million, up from 98.3 million a year earlier. Within that, the Hispanic population was the fastest growing at a rate of 3.4 percent between July 2005 and July 2006.

Hispanics were also the largest minority group, accounting for 44.3 million people on July 1, 2006, or 14.8 percent of the overall U.S. population which, according to census data released in October 2006, stood at more than 300 million.

The United States prides itself as a country built on successive waves of immigration, with the Statue of Liberty in New York a powerful symbol of the welcome to immigrants. But the nation remains divided over the subject.

President George W. Bush supports a comprehensive approach to immigration reform but an attempt to pass legislation failed last year.

Members of a bipartisan group of senators are pushing to reach agreement on immigration reform that would offer some illegal immigrants a chance to become citizens.

Lawmakers have been struggling to come up with a formula providing tougher border and workplace enforcement while addressing the status of some 11 million illegal immigrants who live and work in the shadows.

"About one in three U.S. residents is a minority," said Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon.

"There are more minorities in this country today than there were people in the United States in 1910. In fact, the minority population in the U.S. is larger than the total population of all but 11 countries (on the planet)."

The black population grew 1.3 percent in the year from July 2005 and reached 40.2 million in 2006, the census said, while the number of native Hawaiians and members of other Pacific islander groups reached 1 million.

Asians were the second fastest-growing minority group at a rate of 3.2 percent, with their numbers standing at 14.9 million.

The population of non-Hispanic whites who indicated no other race grew 0.3 percent during the one-year period.

New York state had the largest black population with 3.5 million people, followed by Florida at 3 million and Texas at 2.9 million. The median age of African Americans was 30.1 years, lower than the 36.4 for the whole population.

Four states and the District of Columbia now have more minorities than members of the majority white population.

Hawaii has a population that was 75 percent minority in 2006. The District of Columbia stood at 68 percent, with New Mexico at 57 percent, California at 57 percent and Texas at 52 percent, the report said.

    U.S. minority population tops 100 mln: census, R, 17.5.2007, http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1627210820070517

Population change in states' top urban areas

4.4.2007
USA Today

The population of Denver's metropolitan area has topped that of Pittsburgh's, and Houston's has passed Miami's, according to population estimates Thursday by the Census Bureau.

The figures are pegged to last July 1. Metros can include dozens of suburban counties or just a single county. On this page are the population changes in each state's largest urban areas.

The lists include both metros and smaller counterparts called "micropolitan" areas. Both areas may cross state lines. For this list, each is named for its central city and is listed under that city's state. Example: Metropolitan Chicago stretches into Wisconsin and Indiana, but it is listed under Illinois.

Metro area 2000 pop. 2006 pop. %. chg.

Alabama

Birmingham 1,130,984 1,180,206 4.3%

Mobile 541,502 573,319 5.9%

Huntsville 489,900 526,302 7.4%

Montgomery 400,612 413,802 3.3%

Dothan 223,745 232,653 4.0%

Alaska

Anchorage 319,605 359,180 12.4%

Fairbanks 82,840 86,754 4.7%

Juneau 30,711 30,737 0.1%

Ketchikan 14,059 13,384 -4.8%

Kodiak 13,913 13,072 -6.0%

Arizona

Phoenix 3,251,876 4,039,182 24.2%

Tucson 843,746 946,362 12.2%

Prescott 167,517 208,014 24.2%

Lake Havasu City 155,032 193,035 24.5%

Yuma 160,026 187,555 17.2%

Arkansas

Little Rock 610,520 652,834 6.9%

Fayetteville 347,045 420,876 21.3%

Fort Smith 273,171 288,818 5.7%

Texarkana 129,749 134,510 3.7%

Jonesboro 107,762 113,330 5.2%

California

Los Angeles 12,365,619 12,950,129 4.7%

San Francisco-Oakland 4,123,742 4,180,027 1.4%

Riverside 3,254,821 4,026,135 23.7%

San Diego 2,813,833 2,941,454 4.5%

Sacramento 1,796,857 2,067,117 15.0%

Colorado

Denver 2,179,320 2,408,750 10.5%

Colorado Springs 537,484 599,127 11.5%

Boulder 269,787 282,304 4.6%

Fort Collins 251,494 276,253 9.8%

Greeley 180,861 236,857 31.0%

Connecticut

Hartford 1,148,618 1,188,841 3.5%

Bridgeport 882,567 900,440 2.0%

New Haven 824,008 845,244 2.6%

Norwich 259,106 263,293 1.6%

Torrington 182,212 190,119 4.3%

Delaware

Seaford 156,635 180,288 15.1%

Dover 126,700 147,601 16.5%

District of Columbia

Washington 4,796,180 5,290,400 10.3%

Florida

Miami-Dade 5,007,988 5,463,857 9.1%

Tampa-St. Petersburg 2,396,013 2,697,731 12.6%

Orlando 1,644,563 1,984,855 20.7%

Jacksonville 1,122,750 1,277,997 13.8%

Sarasota 589,963 682,833 15.7%

Georgia

Atlanta 4,248,012 5,138,223 21.0%

Augusta-Richmond Co. 499,653 523,249 4.7%

Savannah 293,299 320,013 9.1%

Columbus 281,768 288,847 2.5%

Macon 222,385 229,326 3.1%

Hawaii

Honolulu 876,156 909,863 3.8%

Hilo 148,677 171,191 15.1%

Kahului 128,094 141,320 10.3%

Kapaa 58,463 63,004 7.8%

Idaho

Boise 464,840 567,640 22.1%

Coeur d'Alene 108,685 131,507 21.0%

Idaho Falls 101,677 116,980 15.1%

Twin Falls 82,626 91,705 11.0%

Pocatello 83,103 86,357 3.9%

Illinois

Chicago 9,098,615 9,505,748 4.5%

Peoria 366,875 370,194 0.9%

Rockford 320,204 348,252 8.8%

Champaign-Urbana 210,279 216,581 3.0%

Springfield 201,440 206,112 2.3%

Indiana

Indianapolis 1,525,104 1,666,032 9.2%

Fort Wayne 390,154 408,071 4.6%

Evansville 342,816 350,356 2.2%

South Bend 316,661 318,007 0.4%

Elkhart 182,791 198,105 8.4%

Iowa

Des Moines 481,398 534,230 11.0%

Davenport 376,052 377,291 0.3%

Cedar Rapids 237,230 249,320 5.1%

Waterloo 163,707 162,263 -0.9%

Sioux City 143,053 143,474 0.3%

Kansas

Wichita 571,168 592,126 3.7%

Topeka 224,551 228,894 1.9%

Lawrence 99,965 112,123 12.2%

Manhattan 109,008 105,921 -2.8%

Hutchinson 64,790 63,706 -1.7%

Kentucky

Louisville-Jefferson Co. 1,162,409 1,222,216 5.1%

Lexington 408,326 436,684 6.9%

Bowling Green 104,166 113,320 8.8%

Owensboro 109,875 112,093 2.0%

Elizabethtown 107,543 110,878 3.1%

Louisiana

New Orleans 1,316,512 1,024,678 -22.2%

Baton Rouge 705,967 766,514 8.6%

Shreveport 375,968 386,778 2.9%

Lafayette 238,906 254,432 6.5%

Houma 194,477 202,902 4.3%

Maine

Portland 487,568 513,667 5.4%

Bangor 144,919 147,180 1.6%

Augusta 117,114 121,068 3.4%

Lewiston 103,793 107,552 3.6%

Rockland 39,618 41,096 3.7%

Maryland

Baltimore 2,552,994 2,658,405 4.1%

Hagerstown 222,771 257,619 15.6%

Metro area 2000 pop. 2006 pop. %. chg.

Salisbury 109,392 117,761 7.7%

Cumberland 102,008 99,759 -2.2%

Lexington Park 86,232 98,854 14.6%

Massachusetts

Boston 4,392,340 4,455,217 1.4%

Worcester 749,973 784,992 4.7%

Springfield 680,014 686,174 0.9%

Barnstable 222,230 224,816 1.2%

Pittsfield 134,953 131,117 -2.8%

Michigan

Detroit 4,452,557 4,468,966 0.4%

Grand Rapids 740,482 774,084 4.5%

Lansing 447,822 454,044 1.4%

Flint 436,148 441,966 1.3%

Ann Arbor 322,770 344,047 6.6%

Minnesota

Minneapolis-St. Paul 2,968,817 3,175,041 6.9%

Duluth 275,486 274,244 -0.5%

St. Cloud 167,396 182,784 9.2%

Rochester 163,618 179,573 9.8%

Brainerd 82,252 90,045 9.5%

Mississippi

Jackson 497,197 529,456 6.5%

Gulfport-Biloxi 246,190 227,904 -7.4%

Pascagoula 150,564 152,405 1.2%

Hattiesburg 123,812 134,744 8.8%

Tupelo 125,251 131,953 5.4%

Missouri

St. Louis 2,698,672 2,796,368 3.6%

Kansas City 1,836,420 1,967,405 7.1%

Springfield 368,374 407,092 10.5%

Metro area 2000 pop. 2006 pop. %. chg.

Joplin 157,322 168,552 7.1%

Columbia 145,666 155,997 7.1%

Montana

Billings 138,904 148,116 6.6%

Missoula 95,802 101,417 5.9%

Kalispell 74,471 85,314 14.6%

Bozeman 67,831 80,921 19.3%

Great Falls 80,357 79,385 -1.2%

Nebraska

Omaha 767,140 822,549 7.2%

Lincoln 266,787 283,970 6.4%

Grand Island 68,305 70,245 2.8%

Kearney 49,141 50,655 3.1%

Norfolk 49,538 49,413 -0.3%

Nevada

Las Vegas 1,375,738 1,777,539 29.2%

Reno 342,885 400,560 16.8%

Carson City 52,457 55,289 5.4%

Fernley 34,501 51,231 48.5%

Elko 46,942 48,594 3.5%

New Hampshire

Manchester 380,843 402,789 5.8%

Lebanon 167,413 172,429 3.0%

Concord 136,225 148,085 8.7%

Keene 73,825 77,393 4.8%

Laconia 56,325 61,562 9.3%

New Jersey

Trenton 350,761 367,605 4.8%

Atlantic City 252,552 271,620 7.6%

Vineland 146,438 154,823 5.7%

Ocean City 102,326 97,724 -4.5%



New Mexico

Albuquerque 729,653 816,811 11.9%

Las Cruces 174,682 193,888 11.0%

Santa Fe 129,287 142,407 10.1%

Farmington 113,801 126,473 11.1%

Gallup 74,798 71,875 -3.9%

New York

New York 18,323,382 18,818,536 2.7%

Buffalo 1,170,109 1,137,520 -2.8%

Rochester 1,037,833 1,035,435 -0.2%

Albany 825,875 850,957 3.0%

Poughkeepsie 621,517 671,538 8.0%

North Carolina

Charlotte 1,330,403 1,583,016 19.0%

Raleigh 797,025 994,551 24.8%

Greensboro 643,446 685,378 6.5%

Durham 423,800 464,389 9.6%

Winston-Salem 421,934 456,614 8.2%

North Dakota

Fargo 174,367 187,001 7.2%

Bismarck 94,719 101,138 6.8%

Grand Forks 97,478 96,523 -1.0%

Minot 67,394 63,124 -6.3%

Wahpeton 25,136 23,522 -6.4%

Ohio

Cleveland 2,148,010 2,114,155 -1.6%

Cincinnati 2,009,673 2,104,218 4.7%

Columbus 1,612,841 1,725,570 7.0%

Dayton 848,157 838,940 -1.1%

Akron 694,960 700,943 0.9%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma City 1,095,421 1,172,339 7.0%

Tulsa 859,530 897,752 4.4%

Lawton 114,996 109,181 -5.1%

Stillwater 68,190 73,818 8.3%

Muskogee 69,451 71,018 2.3%

Oregon

Portland 1,927,881 2,137,565 10.9%

Salem 347,218 384,600 10.8%

Eugene 322,977 337,870 4.6%

Medford 181,323 197,071 8.7%

Bend 115,367 149,140 29.3%

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia 5,687,141 5,826,742 2.5%

Pittsburgh 2,431,085 2,370,776 -2.5%

Allentown 740,394 800,336 8.1%

Scranton 560,627 550,841 -1.7%

Harrisburg 509,074 525,380 3.2%

Rhode Island

Providence 1,582,997 1,612,989 1.9%

South Carolina

Columbia 647,253 703,771 8.7%

Charleston 548,972 603,178 9.9%

Greenville 559,922 601,986 7.5%

Spartanburg 253,782 271,087 6.8%

Myrtle Beach 196,629 238,493 21.3%

South Dakota

Sioux Falls 187,093 212,911 13.8%

Rapid City 112,818 118,763 5.3%

Aberdeen 39,827 38,707 -2.8%

Watertown 31,437 31,963 1.7%

Brookings 28,220 28,195 -0.1%

Tennessee

Nashville 1,311,789 1,455,097 10.9%

Memphis 1,205,194 1,274,704 5.8%

Knoxville 616,080 667,384 8.3%

Chattanooga 476,513 496,704 4.2%

Kingsport 298,484 302,451 1.3%

Texas

Dallas-Fort Worth 5,161,518 6,003,967 16.3%

Houston 4,715,402 5,539,949 17.5%

San Antonio 1,711,716 1,942,217 13.5%

Austin 1,249,763 1,513,565 21.1%

El Paso 679,622 736,310 8.3%

Utah

Salt Lake City 968,883 1,067,722 10.2%

Ogden 442,656 497,640 12.4%

Provo 376,778 474,180 25.9%

St. George 90,354 126,312 39.8%

Logan 102,720 111,156 8.2%

Vermont

Burlington 198,889 206,007 3.6%

Rutland 63,400 63,641 0.4%

Barre 58,039 59,564 2.6%

Bennington 36,994 36,929 -0.2%

Virginia

Virginia Beach 1,576,917 1,649,457 4.6%

Richmond 1,096,957 1,194,008 8.8%

Roanoke 288,254 295,050 2.4%

Lynchburg 228,616 239,510 4.8%

Charlottesville 174,021 190,278 9.3%

Washington

Seattle-Tacoma 3,043,885 3,263,497 7.2%

Spokane 417,938 446,706 6.9%

Bremerton 231,969 240,604 3.7%

Olympia 207,355 234,670 13.2%

Yakima 222,578 233,105 4.7%

West Virginia

Charleston 309,632 305,526 -1.3%

Huntington 288,650 285,475 -1.1%

Parkersburg 164,624 161,724 -1.8%

Wheeling 153,178 147,329 -3.8%

Weirton 132,008 125,168 -5.2%

Wisconsin

Milwaukee 1,500,744 1,509,981 0.6%

Madison 501,773 543,022 8.2%

Green Bay 282,497 299,003 5.8%

Appleton 201,722 217,313 7.7%

Racine 188,831 196,096 3.8%

Wyoming

Cheyenne 81,607 85,384 4.6%

Casper 66,533 70,401 5.8%

Gillette 33,698 38,934 15.5%

Rock Springs 37,613 38,763 3.1%

Riverton 35,804 37,163 3.8%



The biggest metros

Here are the nation's largest metropolitan areas — regions centered on one or more cities of at least 50,000 people.

Metro area 2000 pop. 2006 pop. Pct. chg. Metro area 2000 pop. 2006 pop. Pct. chg.

New York 18,323,382 18,818,536 2.7% Boston 4,392,340 4,455,217 1.4%

Los Angeles 12,365,619 12,950,129 4.7% San Francisco-Oakland 4,123,742 4,180,027 1.4%

Chicago 9,098,615 9,505,748 4.5% Phoenix 3,251,876 4,039,182 24.2%

Dallas-Fort Worth 5,161,518 6,003,967 16.3% Riverside, Calif. 3,254,821 4,026,135 23.7%

Philadelphia 5,687,141 5,826,742 2.5% Seattle-Tacoma 3,043,885 3,263,497 7.2%

Houston 4,715,402 5,539,949 17.5% Minneapolis-St. Paul 2,968,817 3,175,041 6.9%

Miami-Dade 5,007,988 5,463,857 9.1% San Diego 2,813,833 2,941,454 4.5%

Washington 4,796,180 5,290,400 10.3% St. Louis 2,698,672 2,796,368 3.6%

Atlanta 4,248,012 5,138,223 21.0% Tampa-St. Petersburg 2,396,013 2,697,731 12.6%

Detroit 4,452,557 4,468,966 0.4%



Source: Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Paul Overberg, USA TODAY.

    Population change in states' top urban areas, UT, 4.4.2007, http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2007-04-04-metro-area-table_N.htm

Making the Return Trip:

Elderly Head Back North

February 26, 2007
The New York Times
By SAM ROBERTS

For the first time since the Depression, more Americans ages 75 and older have been leaving the South than moving there, according to a New York Times analysis of Census Bureau data.

The reversal appears to be driven in part by older people who retired to the South in their 60s, but decided to return home to their children and grandchildren in the Northeast, Midwest and West after losing spouses or becoming less mobile.

A stream of elderly transplants leaving Florida was detected by sociologists two decades ago, including so-called half-backs, who stopped short of returning to their home states and settled elsewhere in the South. What is new is the growth in the number of people leaving the region entirely and the dimension of the migration.

“As the numbers increase of people in their early to mid-60s that move from the North to the South, we would also expect the numbers of people 75 and older that move from the South to the North to subsequently increase as well,” said Grant I. Thrall, a geography professor at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

While the number of people ages 75 and older who move at all is relatively small, a survey of geographic mobility released last month estimated that about 121,000 of them left the South from 2000 to 2005, and 87,000 arrived. In a comparable survey a decade earlier, 57,000 left the South and 92,000 moved there.

From 1995 to 2000, another Census Bureau survey of migration patterns found, for the first time slightly more people ages 85 and older left Florida than settled there.

The shifting trends in migration to and from the South might be attributable in part to differences in generation size and other variables, including fluctuations year to year. From 2004 to 2005, a separate Census Bureau survey reported a slight gain in migrants 75 and older to the South.

Phillip Salopek, a Census Bureau demographer, said that while the census sample was small, he “wouldn’t have any hesitation to use the number” in analyzing migration trends for the region over a five-year period.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, said, “The South, and Florida especially, has been a magnet for yuppie elderly: younger seniors with spouse present and in good health.

“These are a catch for communities that receive them, because they have ample disposable incomes and make few demands on public services,” he continued. “The older senior population, especially after 80, are more likely to be widowed, less well off and more in need of social and economic support.”

“Many northern states seem to have better senior services than Florida,” Dr. Frey added.

The Census Bureau defines the South as the 16 states that stretch from Texas to Florida, including Maryland, Kentucky and Oklahoma. Census Bureau surveys ask where people were living one year and five years earlier, not whether they have returned to their home state. But the anecdotal evidence seems compelling.

Virginia Halloran, 83, and her husband, Fred, retired to Florida in 1978 from Cape Cod, Mass. After Mr. Halloran died in 1995, Mrs. Halloran, a former school psychologist, stayed in Atlantis, Fla., just south of Palm Beach.

In 2005, after she had both knees replaced and grew anxious over forecasts of more hurricanes, she moved to a one-bedroom apartment in a Westwood, Mass., retirement community, a short drive from her children and grandchildren.

“It was just to make life simpler for me,” she said, “and, I think, simpler for them.”

Sharon Cofar, who runs a Coral Springs, Fla., company called A Move Made Easy, a relocation service that caters to older movers, said the migration had accelerated since Hurricane Wilma struck in 2005.

“It was very difficult for the adult children to cope with the hurricanes and their inability to help their parents at this difficult time,” Ms. Cofar said, “and many do not want the parents to go through it again, nor do they want to care-give long distance any more.”

Since last year, Ida Kotowitz, 88, has been living in a retirement home in the Bronx, not far from her daughter and grandchildren, where she moved after 22 years in Florida. “I was failing in health, most of my friends have passed away and I was alone,” Ms. Kotowitz said. “Friends are all right when you’re well, but when you’re not, you need family.”

In 1996, Constance Bialek moved with her husband, Fred, to Florida from California after he received a diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease. He died four years ago. Last November, Mrs. Bialek, 78, moved to an assisted living center across the street from her daughter’s apartment on the West Side of Manhattan.

Mrs. Bialek said she did not miss “all those silly accidents with old ladies who don’t know how to drive,” adding that the diversity of New York City “makes you feel more alive, it keeps you interested in life.”

Mildred Morrison, administrator for the Area Agency on Aging of Allegheny, Pa., which includes Pittsburgh, described return migration as part of a natural progression.

“They usually leave after retirement to a warmer climate, and return in good physical health, but maybe on the cusp of declining health, 10 years or so later,” Ms. Morrison said, mostly to “reconnect with family.”

Not all transplants go home. Aaron Green, 83, a New York postal worker, retired to East Lake, Fla., just outside St. Petersburg, about 20 years ago, then relocated to a garden apartment in Pittsburgh near his son and daughter last year after his wife died.

“When my wife passed on, my son said, ‘I think it’s time to come home with us,’ ” Mr. Green recalled. “I said, ‘I think so, too.’ ”

Demographers say that the last time more older people left the South than moved there was during the Depression, when there was a net loss of people older than 65. Among those 75 and older “the ratio of in-movers to out-movers has been declining steadily over time,” said Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

Calvin Beale, senior demographer of the Economic Research Service at the federal Department of Agriculture, said: “After age 75, as health diminishes and/or widowhood occurs, there is some measure of return flow back to areas of origin, or wherever a caretaker-minded son or daughter lives. And this means a net outflow from the South.”

An analysis by demographers at Queens College of the City University of New York suggests that those 75 and older who left the South were fairly evenly divided between married and widowed. More of the movers were likely to be women and white.

After his wife died, Al Petzke, an 82-year-old former steelworker, returned to the Cleveland area from Houston to be closer to his only son.

“It didn’t make one bit of sense for my son to be spending all that money every month flying down to see me,” Mr. Petzke said. His retirement home is in Berea, Ohio, just down the street from the bar at the Eastland Inn, where he used to stop after work.

“I know exactly how I want to die,” he said. “I want to go over to the Eastland Inn, have a shot of whiskey and a beer, and then they can take me to the funeral home.”

Making the Return Trip: Elderly Head Back North, NYT, 27.2.2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/26/us/26seniors.html